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The WTO is currently paralyzed by persistent challenges, including the difficulty of achieving consensus among its members and the freezing of the Appellate Body. Obtaining acceptance based on consensus among its 166 members on new trade policies that will impose restrictions on the existing practices of certain countries is highly difficult. Furthermore, the Appellate Body of the dispute settlement mechanism has been inoperative since the United States vetoed the appointment of new members. This impasse has hampered progress, particularly in agriculture negotiations or in achieving breakthroughs at the last Ministerial Conference (MC13). The objective at the opening of MC13, held in Abu Dhabi from February 26 to March 2, 2024, was to adopt a work plan for agriculture negotiations, to better control export restrictions and to facilitate food security. Although these demands were rather general, the member states could not reach a consensus. Despite attempts at reform and calls for action, progress remains limited, leaving discussions at an impasse and slowing momentum for cooperation and progress.
However, new avenues for progress are beginning to emerge timidly amid this stagnation. The recent text presented by Brazil offers a roadmap for progress in the agriculture negotiations blocked by India, among others, and supported by developing countries such as the African Group. Although controversial, this initiative underlines the willingness of some members to find alternative solutions to the current impasse of an unreachable consensus. Brazil’s proposal of a work plan for agriculture negotiations up to the 2026 Ministerial Conference attempts to circumvent institutional obstacles and relaunch the negotiating process. Brazil presented its plan for all agriculture negotiation sectors without prescribing results other than precise and ambitious timetables in the absence of a work plan for agriculture adopted at CM13. Although dealing solely with agriculture, Brazil intentionally presented its plan to the WTO General Council, the highest decision-making body before the Ministers, rather than to the Agriculture Negotiations Committee, demonstrating its intention to pressure member states.
Similarly, Singapore’s proposal for a “responsible consensus” opens the door to rethinking how the WTO makes decisions. This proposal could help break the negotiation impasse by encouraging a more thoughtful and collaborative approach and fostering greater understanding and cooperation among members. Singapore’s emphasis on the need for responsible consensus rather than unjustified vetoes highlights the governance and decision-making challenges facing the WTO. Singapore’s vision is to facilitate the adoption of future proposals and use the veto only in cases of major impediments to a country’s trade interests.
The WTO faces several challenges in the future to revitalize agriculture negotiations and strengthen its role in world trade. First, members must overcome institutional blockages and divisions to restore confidence and promote constructive dialogue. The issues of public storage for food security, internal support and export restrictions on agricultural products have always been at the heart of WTO agriculture negotiation difficulties. Developing countries such as India insist on maintaining public food reserves at administered prices to guarantee food security. However, developed countries fear that such programs could disrupt trade in the absence of adequate discipline. The failure to find a permanent solution to these issues highlights the challenge of reconciling food security with trade fairness.
Moreover, new issues linked to current climate change and sustainability realities could add to the negotiating difficulties among WTO member countries. Indeed, the environment and climate change are not a priority for all countries and not all have the necessary expertise to tackle this issue.
Finally, the WTO’s Appellate Body’s reform is necessary to restore its effectiveness and credibility. The WTO can guarantee compliance with trade rules and provide members with an effective means of resolving disputes by re-establishing a functional dispute settlement mechanism. Reactivating the Appellate Body will restore confidence in the WTO’s dispute settlement system and strengthen legal certainty for global trade players.
In conclusion, while the WTO faces major challenges, Brazil’s and Singapore’s recent proposals offer timid but concrete prospects for progress in agricultural negotiations. Accordingly, SM5 representatives travelled to Geneva in June to observe the progress of agricultural cases at the WTO, to continue their efforts to monitor the state of world trade and to meet the main stakeholders in agriculture negotiations.
